— Frank Urbina (@frankurbina_) July 27, 2017
Even so, the backcourt pair’s dilemma becomes clear when we take a look at NBA Math’s Total Points Added (TPA) database.
Among guards over the last two seasons, Lillard ranks fifth in offensive points added (OPA) at 663.12, while McCollum is 12th at 324.88. But on the other side of the ball, McCollum is fourth-worst in defensive points saved (DPS) at minus-235.12, and Lillard is fifth-worst at minus-226.29 over the same span.
Since they are so damn good offensively, the pair is still a net positive. But as stated before, the team was no better than a middle-of-the-road squad. With two horrendous defenders at the point of attack, the Blazers have to be otherworldly offensively to truly compete with the top tier out West. And that’s where a potential Carmelo Anthony addition becomes interesting.
Keep It Melo
Carmelo Anthony’s distressing stint with the New York Knicks may be coming to a close soon. After outlasting Phil Jackson, Anthony has agreed to waive his no-trade clause if the Knicks can render a deal with the Houston Rockets. Another possible destination for the 14-year veteran is the Cleveland Cavaliers, where he would unite with longtime friend LeBron James. But then he faces the prospect of James bolting town.
So outside of Houston, Rip City may be the best fit for Anthony’s talents.
McCollum has been vocal about his desire to add Anthony, even going as far as photoshopping the 10-time All-Star into a Blazers’ uniform. We also recently saw McCollum and Hoodie Melo playing pickup together, which doesn’t mean much, but is still a whole bunch of fun:
If winners stayed on, I’m thinking Hoodie Melo and CJ McCollum kept the court for a while…
(via cbrickley603 / IG) pic.twitter.com/PC1MB0LBJq
— Tommy Beer (@TommyBeer) August 10, 2017
Where the addition really becomes meaningful is the fit. A whopping 43.3 percent of Lillard’s possessions came as the ball-handler in the pick-and-roll, where he often ended up launching from deep, driving to the cup or showing off a variety of floaters and runners in the lane.
But coming off a Nurkic screen, flanked by McCollum and Anthony, is a lethal proposition. Among players with at least 300 catch-and-shoot attempts, the small forward was tied for sixth in field-goal percentage (44.8 percent) with…you guessed it…Allen Crabbe. Anthony would shine in a catch-and-shoot role, while still being able to take over when necessary.
Stotts already does a pretty good job staggering his stars’ minutes, but with a new small forward in town, it’d be even easier. Not only would Anthony help relinquish McCollum’s burden as second-unit scorer, but the prospect of always having two of your three best players on the court is almost too good to pass up.
As NBA Math Deputy Editor Dan Favale and I discussed on a recent episode of Hardwood Knocks, a deal for Anthony would likely be comprised of something like a first-round pick, Harkless’ cheap contract, Leonard and one or two of Vonleh, Collins and Swanigan. (Aside: I’d include Vonleh rather than the rookies, since the team has them under contract for much longer. Plus, the Blazers will be facing Nurkic’s, as well as Vonleh’s, restricted free agency next summer and likely can’t pay both).
Yes, that’s a lot to give up for possibly one campaign of Anthony, who has an early-termination option after next season. But he likely wouldn’t leave, as it would take him a minimum of two years to recoup the $27.9 million he’s owed in 2018-19. And even if he does dash, at least the franchise has shown Lillard and McCollum they’re not content staying in the middle of the pack.
Position out West
As presently constructed, the Blazers have about a 50-50 chance of making the postseason. Yes, the team hasn’t finished outside the top eight since 2012-13, but in a revamped Western Conference, at least 10 teams could find themselves in contention for post-April hoops. The Golden State Warriors, Rockets, San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder remain the only locks, which leaves the Blazers, Minnesota Timberwolves, Denver Nuggets, Utah Jazz, Los Angeles Clippers and New Orleans Pelicans to duke it out for the final four slots.
The ‘Wolves and Nuggets got better, while the Jazz and Clippers lost their best players but have a chance to be more balanced. The Pelicans remain an intriguing squad and have a good chance to be the team that decides where the Blazers end up. With a frontcourt duo of Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins, along with a healthy Jrue Holiday manning the point, the team could reach the 50-win mark. Then again, the injury bug could spell doom, and Rajon Rondo’s antics could prove too much to overcome, leading to a 35-win season.
Either way, adding Anthony to the fold would make the Blazers a near-lock to make the postseason. And if they don’t? Expect to start hearing real grumblings of McCollum trade rumors sprinkled across the Twittersphere. I don’t expect—and don’t want—Portland to move on from the budding 25-year-old, but at some point it’s got to look itself in the mirror. If repeatedly dipping in to the luxury tax only buys you a first- or second-round playoff exit year after year, maybe moving McCollum for quality young pieces and a couple picks is the move.
Again, I don’t anticipate it happening (or Lillard wanting to go through a mini-rebuild), but stranger things have happened.
Keep Portland Weird.
Follow Michael on Twitter @mbrock03
Follow NBA Math on Twitter @NBA_Math and on Facebook.
Unless otherwise indicated, all statistics via Basketball-Reference and NBA.com.
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