NBA Math’s Rolling Player Ratings are by no means perfect, as is to be expected from a metric based on a schedule-adjusted version of Game Score. They undervalue defensive contributions, only give credit for work that shows up in the box score and can sometimes favor players who rack up meaningless numbers in garbage-time situations. Essentially, they’re a measure of who’s best at producing the most glamorous NBA statistics rather than a measure of pure on-court value.
But the same can be said about the yearly MVP competition.
Though the battle for the Maurice Podoloff Trophy ostensibly attempts to reward the league’s most valuable player, it often gives more credit to offensive players and narratives that are easy to get behind. It’s not always a perfect indication of who served as the “best” player during any given season.
As it turns out, the Rolling Player Ratings can be a valuable tool for assessing and predicting an award that seems to take on different meanings from year to year.
For each of the 10 seasons prior to the 2019-20 campaign, we’ve looked at three different evaluations of Rolling Player Ratings: 10-game peak average (the average of a player’s 10 highest scores in a season), sum (the sum of all a player’s scores in a season) and average (the average of all a player’s scores in a season). By finding those marks for every NBA contributor, calculating the Z-scores to standardize between the three numbers and summing the three Z-Scores, we can arrive at each player’s RPR MVP Score.
Let’s run through those 10 seasons.
2009-10
The Actual MVP: LeBron James ran away with the award, earning 116 of a possible 123 first-place votes.
The RPR MVP: LeBron James ran away with the award, and the gap between him and No. 2 Kevin Durant (also the No. 2 finisher in the real voting) was larger than the gap between Durant and No. 10 Dwight Howard.
Biggest Miss: Pau Gasol was statistically excellent for the Los Angeles Lakers but failed to receive any MVP votes because the Purple and Gold clearly belonged to Kobe Bryant.
2010-11
The Actual MVP: With his relentless and athletic attacks toward the rim, Derrick Rose became the youngest MVP in league history. He ran away with the award while playing in 81 regular-season games, but it’s worth noting LeBron James seemed to suffer from some narrative bias after he left the Cleveland Cavaliers to form a Big Three alongside Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh on the Miami Heat.
The RPR MVP: LeBron James took home this honor behind yet another statistically dominant season. Derrick Rose’s fifth-place finish was the lowest by an actual MVP in the last decade, though he, Dwyane Wade, Kevin Durant and Dwight Howard formed the second tier behind James.
Biggest Miss: Aside from Derrick Rose’s fifth-place finish, Kobe Bryant’s placement stands out. He (justifiably) received more credit for his perimeter defense from voters than he’ll get here.
2011-12
The Actual MVP: Further removed from his decision to take his talents to South Beach, LeBron James overcame a relatively tight battle with Kevin Durant to win MVP.
The RPR MVP: LeBron James and Kevin Durant were clearly in a class of their own here, as well.
Biggest Miss: Tony Parker finished fifth in the actual voting but didn’t appear on the RPR MVP leaderboard, possibly because his 18.3 points per game didn’t stand out and he failed to receive credit for the San Antonio Spurs’ 50-16 record during a lockout-shortened season.
2012-13
The Actual MVP: Carmelo Anthony’s lone first-place vote was the only thing that kept LeBron James from becoming the first unanimous MVP in NBA history. James and Kevin Durant were the obvious top two candidates for the second consecutive season.
The RPR MVP: LeBron James and Kevin Durant were clearly in a class of their own here, as well.
Biggest Miss: Every player in the RPR MVP top 10 earned MVP votes, so it’s hard to find truly glaring misses. Chris Paul and James Harden were reversed from their actual finishes, possibly because the real voting gave more credit to the guard from a team with 11 additional victories.
2013-14
The Actual MVP: Kevin Durant surged past LeBron James after two straight second-place finishes. He and James were vastly superior to every other candidate.
The RPR MVP: Kevin Durant and LeBron James were clearly in a class of their own here, as well.
Biggest Miss: Voters were hesitant to give Kevin Love much credit while he played for a 40-42 Minnesota Timberwolves outfit that missed the playoffs. The RPR MVP scores showed no such qualms as Love averaged 26.1 points, 12.5 rebounds and 4.4 assists with 65 double-doubles and three triple-doubles in 77 appearances.
2014-15
The Actual MVP: Stephen Curry set three-point records for a Golden State Warriors squad beginning to establish itself as a true powerhouse. He earned 100 first-place votes, while James Harden (25) and LeBron James (five) each sat atop some ballots.
The RPR MVP: This was one of the most heated races of the last decade. James Harden and Stephen Curry were in the top tier, while Chris Paul, LeBron James, Russell Westbrook and Anthony Davis comprised a second tier. Fittingly, those were the top six finishers in the actual voting.
Biggest Miss: Was there one? LaMarcus Aldridge and Marc Gasol were the highest MVP finishers not to appear in the RPR MVP standings, but they combined to earn just 0.007 MVP shares. This year was all about six players.
2015-16
The Actual MVP: Stephen Curry was the first unanimous MVP in NBA history.
The RPR MVP: Stephen Curry stood out here, as well.
Biggest Miss: Kawhi Leonard finished second in the actual MVP voting but fell just outside the RPR MVP leaderboard with an 11th-place finish. As was the case with Kobe Bryant earlier in the decade, excellent perimeter defense registers more in one methodology than the other due to a lack of box-score recognition.
2016-17
The Actual MVP: Russell Westbrook’s triple-double exploits allowed him to narrowly earn the award over James Harden and—to a lesser extent—LeBron James.
The RPR MVP: LeBron James received more credit here, finishing in the top tier alongside James Harden and Russell Westbrook. But the Oklahoma City Thunder point guard also finished atop the pack in RPR MVP.
Biggest Miss: Kawhi Leonard’s generational defensive talents again created a discrepancy here, though the gap began to narrow as Leonard started asserting himself more as a consistent offensive powerhouse.
2017-18
The Actual MVP: Averaging 30.4 points, 5.4 rebounds and 8.8 assists, James Harden finally earned the trophy he’d come so close to holding on a number of occasions. LeBron James also received 15 first-place votes, but he and Anthony Davis were battling for the runner-up finish.
The RPR MVP: LeBron James, Anthony Davis and James Harden all finished with scores that might have contended for an RPR MVP title in other seasons, but James was in a class of his own during his final season with the Cleveland Cavaliers.
Biggest Miss: Does having James Harden in third place count? The top seven MVP finishers finished in the top seven of the RPR MVP standings, and eight-place DeMar DeRozan was hardly a serious candidate to earn a podium spot.
2018-19
The Actual MVP: Giannis Antetokounmpo earned 78 first-place votes to James Harden’s 23, giving him the honor in one of the closer head-to-head battles in recent history.
The RPR MVP: Giannis Antetokounmpo and James Harden were also the top two finishers, but the latter’s rim-scorching peak gave him the edge—not by an insubstantial amount, either—during a season that featured nightly highlight deluges from both candidates.
Biggest Miss: Anthony Davis was an obvious MVP candidate before his trade demands and the subsequent missed action made it readily apparent he wouldn’t be getting any votes. He still did enough in the first half of the season to receive credit in the RPR MVP conversation, but this is one of the most easily explained misses of the decade.